Three simple tools that can help you know the state of the bullrun
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So, for everyone that's new or looking for a simple guidance on how to see where we are on the bullrun, these three tools might be of help, and if not at least knowing they are around is a good idea.
The Basics of the cycle
Basically the bullrun on crypto usually follows a cycle, accumulation, BTC goes to ATH, then the retail investors jump in(For example RobinHood gets a huge influx of average Joes buying), as BTC rips ATHs people start fearing that the bullrun is over and think that BTC has gained too much and they go into altcoins, because they "have more potential for growth", and we enter ALT Season.
Tools:
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
, even though it looks like a clownish concept, it has been pretty decent at showing where in the bullrun we are, for example if you check the March/April prices related to the chart, you see that bitcoin was entering the reddish regression lines, which as the chart says, it's where FOMO Intensifies, after that we went into the 50% crash during may.
The chart itself consists of logarithmic regression lines, that are assigned to colors of the rainbow. The closer to red color, the closer to the peak we are, it shows that it was quite accurate on the peak back in 2018, but again, this should just tell you good pointers to where we are at.
The fear and greed Index
This one is pretty simple, it's based on measuring the emotions on crypto investors, and as we get quite emotional when we are near the ATH, things are fuzzy now, we are at a pretty high Greed index, but it can also show you how is the FUD going when we are going into the market. It's important to note, that this index can swing quite fast, so it won't tell you much in the long run, mostly focused on local highs, as a single day where bitcoin goes into a minor dip can cause the index to drop into FUD quite fast.
Altcoin Season Index:
This index is based on how well are altcoins performing against BTC, this one is important because as I said, people tend to jump into another boats when BTC is too high, as they are exploring alts which can have higher returns. So knowing when is it altseason, or when to jump into alts is important if you want to have a nice run.
Overall those are the tools, they can sure help you know a bit of where we are, and take more informed decisions, crypto can be a wild ride, but there are certain patterns that can't be ignored, ignore them only if you are in for the long run